Covid is here for good, scientists say. The rest remains unpredictable.

Covid could take on a similar ebb and flow to the flu, but there is plenty left to figure out about just how severe and disruptive it will continue to be.

SEATTLE — Early in the pandemic, many people seized on the hope that Covid-19 could be stopped in its tracks and buried for good once vaccines rolled out.

But hope for a zero-Covid country fizzled for most scientists long ago. 

“Everyone has stopped talking about getting rid of Covid,” Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, an epidemiologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said of her fellow researchers. “It’s not going away, and that means it’s going to be endemic.” 

Most scientists now expect the virus to circulate indefinitely with lower and more predictable case numbers — a status known as endemicity. That would make the coronavirus like many other viruses that humanity has learned to deal with, such as influenza. It remains unclear, however, whether the coronavirus will remain a greater health risk than other endemic respiratory viruses.

There are some indications that government and public health officials are already operating with that idea in mind. The latest wave of the omicron variant has served not only as a reminder that the coronavirus is still mutating in unexpected ways, but also as a signpost: Federal messaging and local government action, which once focused on stopping the virus’s spread and relied upon extreme measures like local lockdowns, is now centered on reducing risk and allowing the vaccinated and the boosted to go on with relatively normal lives with precautions. 

With Covid expected to become a fixture  — and considering how fast the omicron variant spreads — some infectious disease experts now think most everyone could be infected during their lifetimes.

“It seems to me it’s almost inevitable you’re going to become infected,” said Dr. Francis Riedo, an infectious disease physician at EvergreenHealth, a hospital system in Kirkland, Washington. “The real question is how severe that infection is going to be.”

Even if endemic Covid becomes inevitable, however, it doesn’t mean people should stop taking preventive measures, experts say. Instead, they are beginning to consider a future in which Covid precautions, such as masking and occasional encouragement to socially distance, could become somewhat common. Vaccinations would remain central, as would precautions for vulnerable people.    ...