Model projects nearly 300,000 Americans could die from Covid-19 by December

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Thu, 2020-08-06 20:08 — mike kraft

Model projects nearly 300,000 Americans could die from Covid-19 by December Researchers behind an influential model are projecting that the US death toll from coronavirus could reach nearly 300,000 by December 1 -- but that can be changed if Americans consistently wear masks. Madeline Holcombe, Jason Hanna and Ben Tinker, CNN CNN

(CNN)Researchers behind an influential model are projecting that the US death toll from coronavirus could reach nearly 300,000 by December 1 -- but that can be changed if Americans consistently wear masks.

According to Johns Hopkins University, 159,864 people have died in the United States since the pandemic began.

"The US forecast totals 295,011 deaths by December," the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation statement says.

The model doesn't have to come true, said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray: "The public's behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths."

The statement said that if 95% of the people in the US wear face coverings, the number would decrease to 228,271 deaths, and a total of more than 66,000 lives.

"We know that it's good (to wear a mask). We know that it can decrease transmission, (we've) talked about that for months," said CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta. "What this model is doing is saying here is how much of a difference it could make."

The model comes the same day the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released an ensemble forecast that projects 181,031 deaths by August 29.

"State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in Hawaii and Puerto Rico and may decrease in Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, the Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Texas, Vermont and the Virgin Islands." the CDC says on its forecasting website.

The forecast relies on 24 individual forecasts from outside institutions and researchers.

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